A look at the remaining Democratic contests
Depending on which network you watch, Obama is between 89-96 delegates ahead (not counting the figures from the Texas caucuses). The Washington Post has a good read this morning on the state of the Democratic campaigns and the math required to select a nominee prior to the convention. According to the article, Clinton needs 60% of the remaining pledged delegates to catch Obama. She's won only one state -- Arkansas -- with more than 60% of the vote.
These figures, though, don't take into account the superdelegates, where Clinton continues to have a substantial lead. A change involving the seating of the 366 delegates from Florida and Michigan could also play a huge role, but regardless, it's becoming obvious that neither candidate will wrap up the nomination prior to the convention. Here are the remaining Democratic contests, all of which are primaries except for Wyoming (caucus), Puerto Rico (caucus), Guam (territorial convention), and Idaho (non-binding primary and has no effect on delegate allocation):
These figures, though, don't take into account the superdelegates, where Clinton continues to have a substantial lead. A change involving the seating of the 366 delegates from Florida and Michigan could also play a huge role, but regardless, it's becoming obvious that neither candidate will wrap up the nomination prior to the convention. Here are the remaining Democratic contests, all of which are primaries except for Wyoming (caucus), Puerto Rico (caucus), Guam (territorial convention), and Idaho (non-binding primary and has no effect on delegate allocation):
Date | State/Territory   | Delegates at stake    | Polling Average |
---|---|---|---|
March 8 | Wyoming | 12 | - |
March 11   | Mississippi | 33 | - |
April 22 | Pennsylvania | 188 | Clinton by 9 (Feb. 26) |
May 3 | Guam | 4 | - |
May 6 | Indiana | 72 | - |
May 6 | North Carolina    | 134 | Obama by 9.3 (3/3) |
May 13 | West Virginia | 28 | - |
May 20 | Kentucky | 51 | - |
May 20 | Oregon | 52 | - |
May 27 | Idaho | - | - |
June 3 | Montana | 16 | - |
June 3 | South Dakota | 15 | - |
June 7 | Puerto Rico | 55 | - |
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