The 88th General Assembly
has convened the 2012 fiscal session

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

A look at the remaining Democratic contests

Depending on which network you watch, Obama is between 89-96 delegates ahead (not counting the figures from the Texas caucuses). The Washington Post has a good read this morning on the state of the Democratic campaigns and the math required to select a nominee prior to the convention. According to the article, Clinton needs 60% of the remaining pledged delegates to catch Obama. She's won only one state -- Arkansas -- with more than 60% of the vote.

These figures, though, don't take into account the superdelegates, where Clinton continues to have a substantial lead. A change involving the seating of the 366 delegates from Florida and Michigan could also play a huge role, but regardless, it's becoming obvious that neither candidate will wrap up the nomination prior to the convention. Here are the remaining Democratic contests, all of which are primaries except for Wyoming (caucus), Puerto Rico (caucus), Guam (territorial convention), and Idaho (non-binding primary and has no effect on delegate allocation):

DateState/Territory  Delegates at stake   Polling Average
March 8Wyoming12-
March 11  Mississippi33-
April 22Pennsylvania188Clinton by 9 (Feb. 26)
May 3Guam4-
May 6Indiana72-
May 6North Carolina   134Obama by 9.3 (3/3)
May 13West Virginia28-
May 20Kentucky51-
May 20Oregon52-
May 27Idaho--
June 3Montana16-
June 3South Dakota15-
June 7Puerto Rico55-